Thanks for your comments Kai. You are right in your observation in the comments below.

“ In reality, there are other undesirable outcomes (e.g. disruption, stress, injury during the panic) that should be weighted against too”

“Your analysis considers being hit by an incoming missile as the only undesirable outcome, one that should be avoided at all cost.”

I will try to explain my perspective.

There are other undesirable outcomes no doubt, but it pales in comparison to the actual catastrophic event of Missile hitting the island. What would you choose ? 1) An undesirable outcome that does not kill you . 2)An outcome where you don’t get to see another day.

Come to think of it, how many times did the False Positive happen in the first place in recent history. You would agree that too was rare.

The cost of being prepared is less than the cost of getting annihilated.